Hope, Hate and the 2025 Australian Federal Election
This is not the article I had planned to write this week; I had planned to get back to our usual fare of Art and Technology, however the 2025 Federal Election turned out to be a little more eye-opening than usual and given the amount of doom and gloom that has been filling up the feeds of late, some positive analysis seems the order of the day.
Certainly it seems that in 2025 politics and polarisation appear to colour everything that we do and talk about, even if research is showing that this polarisation appears to be an emotional artifact rather than a real ideological one1, it is still exhausting. A day doesn’t pass without more screaming about one side or the other of the political spectrum about the other, particularly in the US media. Australians, particularly those of the late Gen-X, early Millennial generation (Xennials) tend to watch US politics as closely (or closer) than Australian politics, as we’ve come to learn how much a shift in US policy can affect us.
May 3rd, 2025 dawns. A Saturday voting day and there’s a chill in the air as Tasmania is finally starting to give in to the inevitability of the winter months; it’s put up a good fight this year. After a lazy morning, my wife and I rose to greet the day, attend to our civic duty at the local high-school (our area polling place) and then, perhaps, some lunch before returning home to our responsibilities.
The general buzz in the air was cheerful, as it tends to be, down at the school. The air was full of the smell of cooking sausages; democracy sausages cooked on a BBQ are fast becoming an expectation of the electorate at this point and a great opportunity for the school to pick up a bit of extra fundraising. The was a fair bit of friendly chatter, a few kids running around and, of course, a whole bunch of political staffers near the entrance ready to offer “how to vote” cards in a last ditch effort to sway swing voters.
Stand in line chatting for a while, receive our ballots, fill in all the preferences (I always prefer to do the full-run rather than settle on just the compulsory 12, it’s more satisfying), drop them in the ballot box and we’re done.
Later that evening, settled back at the desk I had the national broadcaster’s live feed running as I prepared to do a bit of research for a project I am working on while watching the results trickle in. It was election analyst Antony Green’s final election before retirement, a bittersweet announcement as he had become a minor celebrity himself over the past three decades, the Walter Cronkite of Australian Elections, trusted and respected by both sides of the aisle; for many in the country the election isn’t over until Antony Green calls the victor. His will be difficult shoes to fill.
There was a strange energy in the broadcast that night however, and very little research was done. I found myself drawn in to the drama that was unfolding and before long I had signal blowing up my phone like my name was Peter Hegseth. I wasn’t the only one riveted; a lot of us had viewed this election campaign with a growing sense of unease and the climax was explosive.
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A Historic Victory
A lot of people are calling it that, but what does that mean exactly?
In one sense, it’s a recognition of just how unusual the results of yesterday’s election were. Safe seats that had been held be the incumbent for 20+ years were suddenly overturned. A sitting Prime Minister was re-elected for the first time since the turn of the century. Most shockingly of all, the Coalition received the lowest primary vote in the history of the party.
As a quick aside for those of my readers who aren’t Australian; Australia is governed by a mostly-two-party system, one leaning slightly left, one slightly right. The Coalition, a combination of the Australia Liberal Party and the Australian National Party, lean to the right and the Australian Labor Party leans left. We also have a number of independents who grow more important by the election cycle, the Green party which generally returns a significant percentage of the vote each election, and a number of other minor parties who sometimes win seats in the house and join the crossbench.
Our current party of government is the Labor party, after ousting the Coalition at the last election; and the were not only reelected last night but reelected in force with a massive swing towards the party and an even bigger swing away from the Coalition, representing wins for not just Labor but many independent candidates too.
One of the seats lost was Dickson, held by opposition leader Peter Dutton for the last 26 years, leading to the unexpected retirement of the most powerful person in the coalition and leaving a leadership vacuum no-one expected to have to fill: since the loss of the previous leader, Dutton has been unopposed within the party.
The election was historic for all these reasons, but it was historic for another reason too. Last night’s election wasn’t simply about who was going to run the country for the next three years, or a public opinion poll on how well the Labor party has been doing in these difficult times. This election was existential. This election was about the United States of America, the ongoing collapse of the global order that had sustained us through the latter half of the 20th century and the start of the 21st, and it was about who Australians wanted to be.
An Aside
I’m not going to pretend to be an uninterested party in this essay; as an Australian, a citizen and occasional political commentator I very much have opinions about the players arrayed here. I am something of a centrist and a swing voter, I have at various points in my adult life preferenced both major parties and sometimes minor ones depending on the issues of the day and how I feel. For a number of years now however I have leaned towards Labor - or, it’s probably fairer to say, away from the Coalition.
Since Tony Abbott’s rise in the party quite a few years ago, the Coalition has seemed somewhat meaner, somewhat less caring than it had in the past. As a conservative leaning party it has never been a bleeding heart group by any means, but Abbott represented a different sort of political game and this attitude seemed to have crystalised within the party itself. The party even turned on itself, ousting sitting prime ministers with gusto and knives in the back. I will admit to breathing a sigh of relief when Labor won in 2022, though not without trepidation as Peter Dutton took up the mantle of opposition leader.
Peter Dutton has been an enigmatic figure in Australian politics. Former defence minister, ex-police, he is no-ones idea of cute and cuddly and his public persona was not particularly likeable. How you felt about him likely turned on how you felt about immigration and law-and-order. If you wanted those issues dealt with tougher, you likely appreciated Dutton’s approach.
It is a worrying background for the leader of a country however. Time spent, as he spent, as a working policemen leaves a mark on you, alters your perception of the world in ways that aren’t easily undone. It traumatises you, to a degree. I remember many years ago first coming to this realisation in discussions with my father, not a policeman but at that time a long-term government employee working in the Supreme Court of Tasmania. He worked there for most of my life, and all of the latter party of his before his retirement and for much of that time worked closely with the Judges and spent much time in the courtroom.
He heard many stories, stories that he wouldn’t discuss with us at home for the most part. His perspective on the world was very different from mine, and gradually I came to understand why. Every day he saw some of the worst our society has to offer come through the courtrooms, and he saw and heard the people who suffered at their hands. Many years later I would be called to do my duty in Jury service, an experience which changed me profoundly and gave me a much better understanding of what it must be like to sit there and see that every day.
Police have this same experience, but even more viscerally by their proximity to the moments of crime, to the pain of the victims and the consequences. This cannot help but alter perspective on the world and I have always suspected this is part of why Peter Dutton could seem so cold and uncaring on some issues, such as immigration.
At the end of the day, I was hoping for a Dutton defeat last night. For these reasons yes, but for another more pressing one, and that is what makes last night so important.
The World, Trump, and the future of Australian Politics
My biggest fear; and I know I’m not alone; was the emergence of US-style Trump politics into our country. Beyond just the polarisation, the last years have seen such an increase in political violence, hate speech, inciteful rhetoric, a complete disregard for truth and evidence and above all a certain cruelty and delight in the pain of the opposition that was never a part of our culture. It worked for the Republican party however, and as Trump settled in to his second term this had not gone unnoticed by conservatives in this country either.
Clive Parmer, Australian mining magnate and billionaire, launched his new political party with some fanfare leading up to the Federal Election. His previous party, the United Australia Party, had only managed to secure a single seat at the last election and this time it was clear he was planning something different.
The name now was “The Trumpet of Patriots”, unashamedly borrowing Trump’s name, his platform, his policies and even his slogan: calling for us to Make Australia Great Again. It was a loud campaign, backed by billionaire money and trying to leverage the “outsider” status Trump used to such effect in the 2016 election, claiming they would break the two-party system and change everything for the better.
Worse than this however, was the Coalition’s reaction. They too had noticed Trump’s success and though not quite as shameless about stealing his platform (imitation being the most sincere form of flattery?), still they dedicatedly set about cribbing the bits they liked the most.
As time went on, Peter Dutton was accused of stoking culture wars, the same anti-trans, anti-women’s rights cultural discussions that have been so successful in taking over the popular consciousness in the US. He called both a left-leaning newspaper and the public broadcaster “Hate Media” and made it clear that removing funding from our public broadcasting network was on his agenda. His early policy releases promised to cut 41,000 public service jobs, end “work from home” and force people back into the office, and to “overhaul woke school agendas”, all straight from the Project 2025 playbook. In case the point was missed, he appointed Jacinta Price as the Coalition Shadow Minister for “Government Efficiency”, a clear reference to Trump and Elon Musk’s “DOGE”, the Department of Government Efficiency, currently taking a hatchet and blow-torch to the very framework of the US government. 2
Just in case the point was missed by someone, Jacinta went out to cheer “Make Australia Great Again” at a Coalition rally some time later.
Right from the start then this election was set up as a referendum on what sort of political environment we wanted to have in Australia. Was Trumpism catching? For many decades we have been extremely close allies of the US, politically, economically and culturally. The question on everyone’s mind, certainly on mine, was whether or not the anger and hatred that seemed to have a hold on at least part of the US electorate was going to take over us as well.
The Turn
For a time, it seemed to be working, to my horror. Peter Dutton started the race strong, in front and seemingly destined to fulfil their promise to hold Labor to a single term in government. Then things changed.
It is perhaps ironic that we have, at least in part, Trump himself to thank for the end of this honeymoon. I like to think the result would have been the same even without what happened next, however it almost certainly wouldn’t have been as definitive.
The turn really came on the day Trump quite grandiosely called “Independence day”, the day of Tariffs. Sorry, “Reciprocal” Tariffs.
The announcement of these Tariffs likely caught a lot of Australians off-guard; not everyone is as glued to US politics and many would not have heard the build-up. Suddenly the question was being asked: why are we being tariffed?
It was a fair question in the mind of many Australians. We have been the closest of allies for decades now. Every American led war - Vietnam, Korea, Afghanistan, Iraq - Australians have been on the front-line fighting and dying with their American allies. In the early 2000’s, the free trade agreement was signed under great pressure from (ironically) the US, against some protests in Australia due to the way it favoured large US-based corporations. In due course though, it was signed, after all we’re mates.
That’s when the news started to filter down even to those who usually didn’t pay attention. That Trump’s top trade advisor was singling out Australia, and our aluminium industry, as problematic. That large pharmaceutical companies were lobbying for Trump to “force” Australia to end its PBS scheme - a long running health-care initiative aimed at subsidising the cost of critical medicines and ensuring Australians don’t fail to obtain critical life-saving medicine simply because of lack of money. The side effect of this is a regulation on medicine prices, restricting these Pharmaceutical companies to only “ridiculous” levels of profit, rather than the “quite frankly disgusting” levels they are more accustomed to extracting from their “customers”. Apparently these companies believed that Trump could force a change in policy in Australia; and around the country the backlash began to grow.
Dutton, to his credit, sensed the change in mood quickly and began working to fix the issues. Even before this his announced policies had been met with outrage from many sides and the process of walking them back had begun, now it was imperative to distance himself from Trump and the MAGA movement, now a liability, though it seemed disassociating from it was going to be more difficult than co-opting it had been. Already people had started calling Dutton “Temu Trump”, prompting Dutton to exclaim “I am my own person!” in one interview. When asked in April if he trusted Donald Trump, his answer was “I don’t know Donald Trump, I haven’t met him”.
In 2022, much focus had been on China and the threat they may pose to Australia’s national security. In 2025, despite the unprecedented circumnavigation of Australia by Chinese warships, very little time was given to worrying about China. The concern was the US, their unilateral withdrawal from international organisations and agreements, and their decision to engage in a trade war with the entire world.
For better or worse, Australia as a culture has a certain vision of itself. It’s a laid back, jokey, matey, larrikan sort of image. A country that celebrates having had a prime minister who once held the Guinness World Record for “Fastest Consumption of a Yard Glass of Beer” (at 11 seconds) and famously announced, after Australia’s first ever victory in the Americas cup, that any boss who sacked someone for not showing up to work the next day was a bum. It’s a culture with a hard streak of anti-authoritarianism baked into its DNA, what Redgum would call in their protest anthem our “Convict Streak”.
Needless to say, it isn’t a self-image that was going to much enjoy the idea of being bullied by one of our closest allies, particularly when Trump started announcing that everyone was lining up to “kiss his ass”. Prime Minister Albanese’s response to the behaviour was textbook perfect for the Australian people. Standing sombre with his foreign affairs minister and minister for trade, he announced that this was not “the act of a friend”.
A Historic Night
As the votes were counted and the discussion raged on the ABC, it became clear very quickly that this election was shaping up to be unusual. James McGrath, a coalition senator from Queensland and experienced senior strategist, and Jim Chalmers, the Australian Government Treasurer, joined the hosts to discuss the election and the results as they came in.
McGrath’s refrain for the night was “we need to wait for the Pre-polls to come in”, a fair comment at first. Pre-polls have typically swung conservative in Australia and we could expect a swing of 1-2% back towards the Coalition as prepolls were counted. In Antony Green’s experienced hands however, that was known and accounted for in his projections, making the protests seem a little weak. They seemed weaker as the night went on and the swing continued bigger and bigger, until the hosts seemed incredulous that McGrath seemed to think it was possible for Prepoll numbers to produce enough of a swing to the Coalition to offset what was, in some seats, a more than 10% swing towards Labor.
When Antony announced that some of the first numbers had come in from prepoll counting in Dickson, and contrary to expectations they were swinging towards Labor instead of the Coalition, McGrath didn’t abandon his line - but he did look noticeably paler. No-one argued when, at 8:30, Green called the election for Labor. It got worse for the Coalition from there, turning in to what the media later called “a bloodbath”.
It was, in the view of many, a defiant rejection of Trumpian politics, the smear of which Dutton have never quite been able to shed. Albanese certainly seemed to think so as well, from the tone of his victory speech later in the night.34
“Today the Australian people have voted for Australian values. For fairness, aspiration and opportunity for all. For the strength to show courage in adversity and kindness to those in need, and Australians have voted for a future that holds true to these values, a future built on everything that brings us together as Australians and everything that sets our nation apart from the world in this time of global uncertainty. Australians have chosen optimism and determination, Australians have chosen to face global challenges the Australian way; looking after each other while building for the future, and to serve these values, meet these challenges, seize these opportunities and build that better and stronger future” - Anthony Albanese, post-election speech, 3rd May 2025
There was no mistaking what Albanese was saying, and no accident that he was highlight kindness to those in need, not a trait one generally associates with the Trump administration.
This message repeated even clearer towards the end of the speech, a defiant rebuke to people such as Clive Palmer who sought to harness Trump’s tactics and policies here.
“Our government will choose the Australian way because we are proud of who we are and all that we have built together in this country. We do not need to beg or borrow or copy from anywhere else, we do not seek our inspiration overseas, we find it right here in our values and in our people.” - Anthony Albanese, post-election speech, 3rd May 2025
As the numbers continued to roll in, more evidence piled up, perhaps none more definitive than the fate of the Trumpet of Patriots. After spending more than $60m on their campaign, outspending all other parties on YouTube ads and coming close on traditional TV advertising, they managed to capture on 1.46% of the votes, earning them no seats in the house. By comparison, the “Legalise Cannabis Australia” party, a party with only a single policy issue and no campaign spend to speak of, received 1.14% of the vote, very close to the same result.5
The biggest surprise of the night however came not from Albanese or even the vote percentages, but from Peter Dutton.
A Class Act at the end, and a call for Unity
As Peter Dutton stepped up to the podium, his self control was evident. He looked poised, calm, ready to speak. He must have been hurting, by this point it was clear that they were looking at a complete rout and no party leader looks forward to giving this particular speech, even in the best of times.
He spoke calmly and directly, and did not hesitate to thank his supporters and his colleagues at length. It was a good speech, well delivered, but there were two stand out moments in it. 6
“Earlier on I called the Prime Minister to congratulate him on his success tonight. It’s an historic occasion for the Labor Party and we recognise that. I congratulated the Prime Minister and wished he and Jodie and Nathan all the very best, and I said to the Prime Minister that his mum would be incredibly proud of his achievement tonight and he should be very proud of what he’s achieved.” - Peter Dutton, post-election speech, 3rd May 2025.
I said earlier I didn’t much like Peter Dutton, or his policies, and I was certainly voting for his defeat in this election. In this moment though, I think I loved him. This was exactly the words we needed and exactly the person we needed them from at this moment. This was a reminder that even when we disagree, we are still human beings, we are still Australians, and we are still all worthy of respect.
“We didn’t do well enough during this campaign, that much is obvious tonight, and I accept full responsibility for that.” - Peter Dutton, post-election speech, 3rd May 2025
In these two short moments, Peter Dutton left politics in the most graceful, humble and powerful way possible. He accepted the defeat, accepted his responsibility as party leader without trying to shift blame, without accusations, without divisive rhetoric. He set the example that we should all work together and that even our opponents should be treated with respect.
In this, Peter Dutton has ensured that “Temu Trump” wont be his legacy. Take a moment and try to imagine those words said by Trump, or any member of his movement.
Later, in his own speech, Albanese reinforced Peter Dutton’s message here with a call for unity.
“Now that the Australian people have made their clear choice, let us all reflect on what we have in common, because no matter who you voted for, no matter where you live, no matter how you worship or who you love, whether you belong to a culture that has known and cared for this great continent for 65,000 years or you have chosen our nation as your home and enriched our society with your contribution, we are all Australians. So let all of us work together to build our national unity on the enduring foundations of fairness, equality and respect for one another.” - Anthony Albanese, post-election speech, May 3rd 2025.
During his speech, Albanese likewise showed great character when he paused to rebuke a member of his audience. As he began to speak of Peter Dutton, a jeer came from somewhere in the crowd; Albanese, to his credit, addresses it immediately and without hesitation.
“A short time ago I spoke with Peter Dutton who has of course conceded defeat and I thanked him… {some jeering in the crowd} no I, No. What we do in Australia is we treat people with respect. I thank Peter for his generous words at the end of what has been a very hard-fought campaign and I want to take this opportunity to wish Peter and Kirilly and their family all the very best for their future.” - Anthony Albanese, post-election speech, May 3rd 2025.
These two Australians, in victory and in defeat, showed great character and reminded us what it means to be Australian, and what it means to reject divisiveness, hatred and a politics that thrives on hatred. I was proud to be an Australian, hearing them speak.
Not everyone wants to take the high road, however.
The Price of Freedom
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Murdock media establishment; the same media establishment that brought the Americans “Fox News”; struggled to come to terms with the outcomes of this election, some more than others.
Well known right-wing political commentator Andrew Bolt wrote the morning after that the voters were wrong to vote the way they did; a somewhat bizarre claim, given that a vote is an opinion, a preference, and people are rarely wrong about their own opinions.
He continued to say that the Coalition loss occurred because they “refused to fight the ‘culture wars’”, essentially calling for a more Trumpian political playbook rather than a return to more civil politics.
Peta Credlin, ex-chief of staff to Tony Abbott, made essentially the same claim on Sky News, claiming that the coalition “didn’t do enough culture wars” before going on to make an unpleasant comment about trans-women versus “biological women” and then accusing the hosts of mansplaining when they protested.
Before the two leaders gave their speeches the night of the election, the ABC broadcast spoke to Jacinta Price, who likewise indicated she was still all-in on the Trump playbook herself. When asked, she furiously rejected any notion that she might be partially responsible for the Coalition’s terrible defeat, despite her very public embrace of Donald Trump and co-opting his slogan. When asked if that could be related, rather than answer the question she instead made a claim, without evidence of any kind, that the Prime Minister had “absolutely misled the Australian people all the way through and was rarely called out for his conduct, I think its deceitful”.
When asked if she thought that pictures leaked to the media of her wearing a MAGA hat, when combined with her cheering “Make Australia Great Again” at a public rally, might have had an impact, she accused the ABC of slinging mud at her and then said:
“Can I just say, in terms of wanting this country to be great again, Donald Trump doesn’t own those four words.” - Jacinta Price
Which, in terms of disingenuousness, likely ranks up with many of the more outrageous things Trump has said over the years. If Jacinta is shaping up to try and claim that her words were not intended as any sort of reference to Trump and the US, but that the link was co-incidental, I suspect she is in for disappointment. She is not Donald Trump, and without his charisma and the connection he has with his base, simply denying the obvious is unlikely to work for her.
She finished up her interview by saying:
“The Liberal Party will determine what the leadership looks like going forward, but we will absolutely learn.” - Jacinta Price
Sadly, I don’t think she is gearing up to take the same lesson away from this defeat as many of the rest of us are.
It is often attributed to Thomas Jefferson, the words “The price of freedom is eternal vigilance”. It seems this attribution may mostly be apocryphal, though the sentiment has been around quite some time. Perhaps the earliest version was said quite colourfully by John Philpot Curran:
"It is the common fate of the indolent to see their rights become a prey to the active. The condition upon which God hath given liberty to man is eternal vigilance; which condition if he break, servitude is at once the consequence of his crime and the punishment of his guilt." -John Philpot Curran
Jacinta Price, Andrew Bolt and Peta Credlin then can all stand as a warning to the rest of us that despite the definitive rejection of the politics of hate delivered in this election, we cannot cease our vigilance against those who would use our differences to turn us against each other, rather than our shared humanity to bring us together.
A Way Forward
Perhaps, in this, there is a ray of hope for our American cousins as well. Despite the current divide, things do not have to remain the way they are. We have it within us to reject the divisiveness, the hate speech, the dehumanisation of our fellow citizens, and instead acknowledge that they are just people, like us, struggling to survive in a difficult world and looking for some acknowledgement, some assistance, looking to believe that they are seen and their opinions matter. If anything has led us to this point it has been allowing a feeling of disenfranchisement fester amongst people until the unscrupulous could turn it into a weapon against their opponents.
For many, many decades, Australians have considered America amongst our closest friends. In my home city of Hobart, blessed with one of the deepest natural harbours in the world, we have often welcomed US naval ships in need of a friendly stopover and shore leave for the sailors. My father served in the Australian Navy for more than a decade and often spoke of cooperation with the US Navy, in both training and active theatres. We have fought and died side by side in conflicts all over the globe.
As children in the latter decades of the 20th century we grew up knowing with certainty that America was “the home of the free”, and that they stood with us and the rest of the Commonwealth and the western world in pursuit of peace and prosperity.
It’s a different time now, perhaps, but we can still hope that the US can find inspiration once more in the principles it held so strongly that they inspired the rest of us as well.
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[Kleinfeld2023]: Kleinfeld, Rachel. “Polarization, Democracy, and Political Violence in the United States: What the Research Says.” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, September 5, 2023. https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2023/09/polarization-democracy-and-political-violence-in-the-united-states-what-the-research-says?lang=en.
[Whiteman2025a]: Whiteman, Hilary, and Angus Watson. “First Canada, Now Australia? Conservatives Fear the Trump Slump Is Spreading.” CNN, April 30, 2025. https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/30/australia/peter-dutton-policies-australia-election-intl-hnk.
[9NewsAustralia2025a]: In Full: Anthony Albanese’s Emotional Victory Speech | 2025 Federal Election | 9 News Australia, 2025. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WL4Px3xhimA.
[Whiteman2025]: Whiteman, Hilary, and Angus Watson. “Australia’s Center-Left Labor Party Retains Power in Vote Seen as Test of Anti-Trump Sentiment.” CNN, May 3, 2025. https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/03/australia/australia-election-results-albanese-dutton-intl-hnk.
[Sadrolodabaee2025]: Sadrolodabaee, Niv. “‘A Footnote’: Trumpet of Patriots Spent Millions on the Election and Didn’t Win a Single Seat.” SBS News, May 4, 2025. https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/trumpet-of-patriots-spent-millions-on-the-election-it-hasnt-won-a-single-seat/oub3du23x.
[9NewsAustralia2025]: Peter Dutton Speaks after Election Defeat | 2025 Federal Election | 9 News Australia, 2025. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K6CRaQqGpXQ.